Nepalnews. com India could turn 'Red': US analysis

The largest democracy in the world could turn into a communist country if Maoists continued to expand their influence in Nepal, a columnist says quoting a US information-analysis.

Writing in the latest issue of Himal Khabarpatrika (2-16 October, 2004), Arjun Gyawali quotes a five-year old American information-analysis as saying that if the Maoists kept on expanding their influence in Nepal then this would have its effect in around ten states of India.

"This is because the rebel outfits (in India) like the People's War Group (PWG) and Maoist Communist Centre (MCC) have been waging struggle there for decades. In the coming one or one and a half decade, apart from these states, the communist struggle would leave its distinct impact on whole of India. And eventually, India would become a communist country," the analysis said.

The US analysis further said that perhaps in some two and a half decades time China would have already established itself as a super power in the world. (If the Nepali Maoist movement continued to gain greater heights), the end result would be that both China and India-- which are the world's biggest in terms of population and size-- would become communist states. And its effects would spread in other places as well. This is why it is now indispensable that India extends its help in controlling Nepal's Maoists when there is still some time left."

U.S. assistant secretary of state, Christina Rocca, who looks after South-Asian affairs, successively visited Kathmandu and New Delhi many times. The main objective of her visit was to make India agree on the American analysis. But until that time India hadn't recognized Nepal's Maoists as a serious or shared threat.

One of the reasons behind the latest shift in Indian policy towards Nepali Maoists could be the five-year-old US information-analysis. "By setting up their 'headquarters' on the Indian soil, the Maoists have spread their political network in Germany, Belgium and other European countries. The extension of diplomatic activities of Nepali Maoists and their intimacy with groups like MCC and PWG must have made India worried and apprehensive," Gyawali said in his write-up.

Analysts, however, say the 'alarming' report, which was never discussed in the public over the last five years may have been blown out of proportion. They say nearly six-decade-old Indian democracy has served as a main force for the country's integration and a bulwark against all kind of extremist forces.

They point towards the fact that India now has nearly 100-million strong middle class and that ultra-left movement has its hold in relatively poor states like Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand only. Despite a brief spell during the state of emergency (June 1975- January 1977), Indian democracy has remained vibrant and is strong enough to overcome such challenges, a commentator told Nepalnews.
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