Nepal plays poll card, all eyes on Maoists

15 January 2005

KATHMANDU: Nepal is turning up the heat on Maoist rebels by announcing it will push ahead with polls and at the same time intensify a crackdown on the insurgency.

Eyes are now turning to the Maoist response. Will the rebels counter with more violence, or will the pressure eventually force them to come to the negotiating table?

Most commentators see divisions within the movement itself.

Hardliners are thought to have prevailed at a September plenum and won the go-ahead to pursue a military strategy for at least another six months. Rebels are expected to review that decision at a high-level meeting over the next month or two.

"The next month is very crucial," said Yubaraj Ghimire, editor of Samay weekly magazine. "We really don't know if the party will extend the hardline approach, or reject it, and say 'now we should try other methods'."

The hardline approach has had only limited success so far.

Rebels have demonstrated their power by blockading the capital and closing down businesses simply by issuing threatening statements. But the army says it has foiled plans for major attacks, and inflicted heavy losses on the guerrillas.

"Their military strength has suffered a serious jolt," said Ghimire. "There is a compulsion before them to come to some kind of understanding."

The eight-year civil war in the strategic Himalayan nation sandwiched between nuclear giants China and India has killed more than 11,000 people and is poisoning the lives of millions more.

Diplomats fear the conflict could spiral further out of control if the rebel movement fragments and warlords take over.

India and the United States are desperate to prevent a takeover by the Maoists, not least because of the encouragement that would give to rebel movements worldwide.

On Thursday (local time), Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba said he would call elections this year and intensify the crackdown.

But even though the rebels failed to respond to his offer of talks by Thursday's deadline, Deuba said his door remained open and he still hoped they might come to the table soon.

"I have a report that the pro-dialogue group was defeated in the September Maoist plenum," he said. "The report said that they will go for a strategic offensive up to mid-March.

"If they succeed, they may come to the table with some sort of victory, and if they are defeated, they will come for negotiations - the pro-dialogue group might emerge."

Nepal has had no parliament since 2002 and Deuba was appointed directly by King Gyanendra with a mandate to hold elections this year.

Diplomats and analysts say it would be tough to hold an election if the Maoists stick to their threat to "shatter" the poll. But even an imperfect vote could give the government a degree of legitimacy, and strengthen its hand in any dialogue.

Ghimire said the best hope was for some kind of back-channel negotiations and a tacit understanding with the Maoists not to disrupt the vote.

In exchange, he said, the government would have to agree to discuss the Maoists' key demand - the abolition of the monarchy - straight after the vote.

Former mediator Padma Ratna Tuladhar said the Maoists also wanted the government to agree to foreign mediation, either by the United Nations or a respected independent humanitarian group.

"I myself can take responsibility to bring them back to the negotiating table if there is any third party involvement," he said.

So far, that is not something the government or giant neighbour India will agree to, but some say there is a chance Delhi could drop its objections if there was no other option.
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